Currency slips after U.S. data dampen Fed rate hike bets

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May 26, 2016 4:50 PM

The Commerce Department said orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged 3.4 percent last month after increasing 1.9 percent in March.

A man counts wads of U.S. dollars on a money counting machine at a currency exchange shop in Baghdad December 21, 2015. REUTERS/Khalid al Mousily

The U.S. dollar fell against the euro, yen, and franc on Thursday after U.S. economic data showed weakness in business spending plans, denting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in June or July.

The Commerce Department said orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged 3.4 percent last month after increasing 1.9 percent in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast durable goods orders rising only 0.5 percent last month.

But non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.8 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in the prior month. These so-called core capital goods orders have now declined for three consecutive months.

"The market is not really seeing any signs here of an improvement in business spending," said Thierry Albert Wizman, global interest rates and currencies strategist at Macquarie Ltd in New York.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, hit 94.938, its lowest level in eight days. The euro rose more than half a percentage point to a session high of $1.1216, rebounding from Wednesday's 10-week low of $1.1126.

The dollar hit its lowest level in a week against the Swiss franc, at 0.9873 franc. The dollar was last down 0.54 percent against the yen at 109.58 yen after hitting a session low of 109.42 yen early in the session.

Fed funds futures contracts on Thursday implied traders saw a 28 percent chance the U.S. central bank would raise rates in June, down from 32 percent on Wednesday.

"The market is scaling back some of its confidence in a June or July rate hike," said Daniel Katzive, head of FX strategy for North America at BNP Paribas in New York.

The dollar's losses on Thursday chipped away at its gains since May 18, when minutes from the Fed's April policy meeting signalled the central bank had edged closer to a rate increase in the near term. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials earlier this week also supported bets for a rate rise in June or July.

The dollar index is still about 0.6 percent higher since the release of the Fed minutes. Investors also were awaiting comments from Fed Governor Jerome Powell on Thursday and a speech on Friday by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

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