The market is about to reach an inflection point — here’s how to predict which way it’s going to go

pulse

April 13, 2018 4:01 PM

Fidelity director of global macro Jurrien Timmer says the Goldilock days are over and we are transitioning to the late cycle of the economic phase.

Fidelity director of global macro Jurrien Timmer says valuations will continue to compress due to pressures from anti-trade policies and where we are in the economic cycle.
If earnings growth stays in the 17-20% range moving forward, you can have what Timmer calls a "benign valuation reset" where valuations compress and stock prices go up.
This is an important earnings season to watch as it is the first quarter since the corporate tax cuts. Timmer will be looking for companies to deliver the 17% earnings growth that is currently estimted. He will also be looking to see if companies guide higher or lower for the next quarter.

Jurrien Timmer is the director of global macro for Fidelity Investments. He stopped by Business Insider's offices to talk to Sara Silverstein about his economic and market outlook. The following transcript has been edited for clarity.

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If the by-product of globalization is stronger global growth and lower inflation, then protectionism, I think is a form of deglobalization, and should bring the opposite.

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late cycle is a notoriously difficult part of the cycle to pin down, whereas midcycle is really the sweet spot.

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