The Mega Millions jackpot is over $500 million — we did the math to see if it's worth buying a ticket

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March 30, 2018 7:36 PM

Buying a Mega Millions ticket may not be the best use of your money.

The Mega Millions jackpot is at $521 million ahead of Friday evening's drawing.
Though that's a pretty big prize, working through the math of how lotteries work suggests that buying a ticket is not a great investment.
The low probability of winning and the risk of splitting the prize in a big, highly covered game mean you'd probably lose money.

TheMega Millionsjackpot for Friday's 11:00 pm ET drawing is up to $521 million as of 2:00 pm ET Friday.

That's the fourth-biggest Mega Millions prize ever, according to the lottery's website.. However, taking a closer look at the underlying math of the lottery shows that it's probably a bad idea to buy a ticket.

Consider the expected value

When trying to evaluate the outcome of a risky, probabilistic event like the lottery, one of the first things to look at isexpected value.

Expected value is helpful for assessing gambling outcomes. If my expected value for playing the game, based on the cost of playing and the probabilities of winning different prizes, is positive, then, in the long run, the game will make me money. If the expected value is negative, then this game is a net loser for me.

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