A record 74% of fund managers say US tech stocks is the most crowded trade, according to Bank of America survey

Overall, "investor sentiment remains cautious," analysts led by Michael Hartnett wrote.
In addition, as many as 52% say that a second wave of COVID-19 cases is the largest tail risk for markets.
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It's the longest long trade of all time a record 74% of fund managers said that US technology stocks are the most crowded trade, according to Bank of America's July survey released Tuesday.

Technology has outperformed this year amid the coronavirus meltdown and rebound. The Nasdaq has soared to multiple all-time highs , driven by record highs from companies such as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google, and Microsoft .

Overall, "investor sentiment remains cautious," analysts led by Michael Hartnett wrote Tuesday. The consensus is positioned for bad news on the coronavirus pandemic, macroeconomic outlook, and November 2020 presidential election, according to the note.

Because of this, Hartnett expects "choppy/higher summer prices," he wrote.

The coronavirus pandemic continues to be top of mind for investors, according to the monthly survey. As many as 52% say that a second wave of COVID-19 cases is the largest tail risk for markets, but that a vaccine candidate is the catalyst that could flip the longest trade and largest market risk.

Still, 72% of investors expect stronger global growth as the recovery from the pandemic recession continues, the highest since January 2014, according to the survey.

Conviction in the strength and duration of any recovery remains low however, with only 14% saying that the recovery will be "V-shaped," while 44% are betting on a "U-shape" and 30% think the recovery will be "W-shaped."

Going forward, as many as 62% of investors want CEOs to focus on improving balance sheets. More than half of respondents do not think the Federal Reserve will introduce yield curve control in September, and 67% said that supply chain reshoring remains the most likely structural shift post-pandemic.

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