- After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have caught fire in recent weeks.
- The two models we're tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
- Cortana has nailed 82% of the games in the last 4 weeks.
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The computers are on fire picking NFL games — here are their picks for Week 11
Two models predict who will win the games in Week 11 of the NFL.
The NFL season is now in Week 11, and one of the two computer models we are tracking has caught fire in recent weeks.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
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Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Cortana went 11-3 in Week 10 and is now 45-10 (82%) over the last four weeks. It is now 96-50 (66%) overall, four games better than Elo (92-54, 63%). Elo went 12-2 in Week 10.
Here are the picks for Week 11, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
Thursday
Sunday
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- Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers — PACKERS (Elo 67%), RAVENS (Cortana 63%)
- Arizona Cardinals (pick) at Houston Texans — TEXANS (Elo 57%), CARDINALS (Cortana 61%)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Dallas Cowboys — COWBOYS (Elo 53%), EAGLES (Cortana 61%)
Monday
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