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Netanyahu, under fire at home, seeks a warm embrace in U.S.

A speech to America’s biggest pro-Israel group — and a chance to show voters back home, contemplating a future without him, that he is indispensable.

Netanyahu’s agenda is limited in scope, but abundant in complexity, and the issues he confronts carry great consequence, both for Israel’s national security and for its historically close ties with the United States.

Here is a look at the subjects he is expected to broach — and others that will be lurking beneath the surface — in both of those settings.

The Embassy: A Coveted Prize

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Netanyahu has amply thanked Trump for his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, his decision to move the U.S. Embassy there from Tel Aviv, and his announcement that this would take effect May 14, the anniversary of Israel’s independence.

Expect Netanyahu to express his gratitude even more effusively in person in his meeting Monday.

Doing so, after all, will remind anyone listening that it was Netanyahu, out of all the prime ministers in Israel’s seven-decade history, whose stewardship of the Israeli-American alliance reaped such a long-awaited diplomatic reward.

“He campaigned as someone who understood America better than anyone else, but until Trump came along, he always ended up in adversarial relationships with Democratic presidents,” said Shalom Lipner, a foreign policy expert who spent 26 years in the prime minister’s office. “This is his moment in the sun.”

The embassy move is an unstinting applause line among most Israelis, regardless of their opinions of Netanyahu, said Tal Schneider, a political correspondent for Globes, an Israeli financial newspaper, and Netanyahu is likely to bring it up as often as he can in Washington, too. “Politically, he needs the Jerusalem thing talked about over and over again.”

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Before boarding his plane in Israel, Netanyahu said he would “definitely discuss” with Trump the possibility of inviting the president to open the embassy in Jerusalem in May.

The Scandals: An Unspoken Bond

While they may not discuss the topic, even privately, Netanyahu and his host at the White House have something in common besides an affinity for labeling criticism “fake news."

Both face politically damaging investigations, and their responses have come from similar playbooks. Trump is dealing with the special counsel’s inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 election; Netanyahu faces allegations by the Israeli police that he committed bribery, fraud and breach of trust in his dealings with wealthy businessmen and newspaper publishers.

Trump, unlike Netanyahu, has not been personally accused of wrongdoing. But each has labeled the investigation bedeviling him a “witch hunt” and attempted to discredit those involved.

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For Netanyahu, who faced a new round of questioning from detectives Friday, and who is in far greater political peril than the president, the trip to the United States will provide a welcome respite, said Daniel Kurtzer, a career diplomat who was ambassador to Israel under President George W. Bush.

But the lift from his White House visit, and a speech Tuesday at the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, won’t last long. “He’ll be smiling in the Oval Office,” Kurtzer said of Netanyahu. “They may announce this rumored invitation to Trump to come cut the ribbon on the embassy in May. He’ll be cheered at AIPAC — but who’s it fooling?”

On Iran: Seeking U.S. Assistance

Israel’s determination to stop Iran from entrenching itself or its proxies in Syria has led to escalating clashes, in which Israel has made clear it will take care of matters on its own.

But Israel’s desire to prevent Iran from establishing an overland supply line through Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon would require U.S. forces to interdict Iran’s efforts. Yet U.S. military officials have said that, so far, countering Iran is not part of their mission in Syria.

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Michèle Flournoy, a former undersecretary for policy at the U.S. Defense Department, said Netanyahu needed above all else to get the Trump administration to focus, in talks over ending the Syria war, on Iran’s moves there and the risk of a broader regional conflict embroiling Israel.

“The U.S. is not quite missing in action in the negotiations, but it’s certainly not carrying a lot of water at this point,” Flournoy said. “And it needs to be carrying a lot of water on this, not just for our own interests but for Israel — because Israel doesn’t have a seat at the table.”

Netanyahu is likely to resume his critique of the Iran nuclear deal in his meeting with Trump, Flournoy said. But she warned that even Israel’s national security establishment believed the agreement was worth preserving, in hopes of improving or extending it. “The worry is that Bibi pumps up Trump to walk away from the deal,” she said, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “I would hope that he would exercise some restraint.”

Peace With the Palestinians: Awaiting a Plan

The Trump administration has said it is nearing the release of its plan for an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord, and all signs point to a proposal that is far more favorable to Israel, and objectionable to the Palestinians, than U.S. initiatives in the past. The Palestinians, enraged by Trump’s policy shifts on Jerusalem, have refused to meet with U.S. officials and have rejected any U.S. role in mediating the conflict.

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Netanyahu could be expected to encourage Trump to move swiftly on the plan, said Dan Shapiro, who was U.S. ambassador to Israel under President Barack Obama. A plan that benefits Israel at the Palestinians’ expense would only reinforce Netanyahu politically, underscoring his argument to Israeli voters that he is a peerless master of the Israeli-American relationship.

Netanyahu also may calculate that a one-sided deal from the Trump administration, Shapiro said, “will become a new standard American position — and a starting point for subsequent negotiations, encouraging the Palestinians to accept much a lower set of demands than they’ve historically been willing to."

American Jews: A Rift, and Growing Disenchantment

Netanyahu is likely to bask in a warm embrace at AIPAC, but his standing among American Jews may be as polarizing as Trump’s among American voters.

To American Jews in the political center and left, and especially Reform and Conservative Jews, Netanyahu’s right-wing government has complicated their support for Israel, through policy moves like abandoning an agreement for non-Orthodox worshippers to gain access to the Western Wall in Jerusalem, and forcing thousands of African migrants to choose deportation or jail.

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Some observers of the two countries’ close ties have even begun asking if the tight embrace between Trump and Netanyahu is truly a sign of the alliance’s strength — or is masking its weakness.

“The relationship may have peaked,” said Charles Freilich, a former Israeli deputy national security adviser who now teaches at Harvard.

Netanyahu’s aides insist he remains as mindful as ever of the need for a bipartisan approach to the United States, and he is likely to have warm words for Reform and Conservative Jews when he speaks to AIPAC’s 18,000 members on Tuesday.

But Mitchell Barak, an American-Israeli political consultant, said Netanyahu’s cultivation of liberal American Jews had dwindled to little more than lip service lately — while rejecting their demands could only hearten his ultra-Orthodox supporters.

“He’s great at telling them how much he values them,” Barak said of less-religious American Jews, “till he gets home and votes for closing all stores on Shabbat, or not implementing the wall deal, or saying the ultra-Orthodox don’t have to serve in the army.”

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The New York Times

DAVID M. HALBFINGER © 2018 The New York Times

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