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December factory activity shrinks for 10th month

Some market watchers suspect real growth is actually much lower than official data suggest.

China's President Xi Jinping speaks during a Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Sandton, Johannesburg, December 4, 2015. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

China's factory activity contracted for the 10th straight month in December, and at a sharper pace than in November, a private survey showed, dampening hopes that the world's second-largest economy will enter 2016 on steadier footing.

The Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) slipped to 48.2 in December, below market expectations for a slight pick-up to 49.0 and down from November's 48.6.

The reading was the lowest since September, remaining well below the 50-point level which demarcates contraction from expansion on a monthly basis.

The survey focuses more on small and medium-sized private firms. An official survey on Friday, which looks at larger state-owned companies, showed a fifth month of contraction though at a slightly more modest pace of 49.7.

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Both surveys pointed to a continued albeit gradual loss of momentum, not a sharper deterioration or "hard landing" which has been feared by global investors. Plus, a stronger services sector is cushioning some of the downdraft from factories.

Still, economists expect more interest rate cuts, reductions in banks' reserve requirements and other stimulus in 2016 as the economy has been unusually slow to respond to a year-long flurry of support measures, suggesting it is facing deeper-rooted cyclical and structural challenges than in the past.

The government is expected to increase its budget deficit to about 3 percent of gross domestic product in 2016 to help boost activity.

Weighed down by weak demand at home and abroad, factory overcapacity and cooling investment, China is expected to post its weakest economic growth in 25 years in 2015, with growth seen cooling to around 7 percent from 7.3 percent in 2014.

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