How Obi, Tinubu will lose 2023 election to Atiku according to Dele Momodu
Momodu says Atiku is the most prepared and experienced candidate in the race.
Momodu in a statement on Monday, January 23, 2023, dismissed polls that predicted victory for the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, and the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, Peter Obi.
According to him, the polls conducted by surveying agencies over-relied on technology for an election that would most likely be determined by Nigeria’s largely illiterate population.
Alluding to historical facts, the publisher of the Ovation Magazine said any election in which the south presents two popular candidates, the north wins.
He said, “I have read with bemusement many of the polls about the forthcoming presidential election on February 25, 2023, and have come to the conclusion that the elitist polls have failed monumentally due to the over-reliance on technology in a largely illiterate population.
“I have decided to help situate the forecasts based on the established political history of Nigeria and empirical data.
“A presidential candidate cannot depend totally on votes from outside his home base to win this election. It is a fact of history that whenever the South produced two strong candidates, the dominant northern candidate won, such as in 1979 and 1983, Obafemi Awolowo and Nnamdi Azikiwe versus Shehu Shagari.
Momodu believes Tinubu is not popular in the north, adding that the votes the APC presidential candidate would gather in the region would not be enough to win the election.
“Tinubu is far weaker today in the South-West and Awolowo was by far more formidable, while Obi is the new Azikiwe (the first Governor General and President of Nigeria) in the South-East, and Kwankwaso is the current Aminu Kano.
“Atiku will dominate the North-East, North-West, North-Central and South-South. Tinubu may pick a few states in the North and South-West but won’t have enough to win. The bridges required to cross to victory has taken Atiku 30 years to build. Tinubu has not been able to lock down the entire South-West not to talk of the whole of Nigeria. Over-reliance on bribing the electorates will fail,” he said.
On Obi, Momodu said the Labour Party candidate and Atiku would slug it out in the Southeast, which is expected to be the stronghold of Obi.
The publisher maintained that Atiku would sweep the south-south region, adding that the PDP candidate would get substantial votes across the 36 states to record 25 per cent in 24 states.
He said, “Wherever Obi is number one in the East, Atiku will be number two. Wherever Tinubu is number one in the South-West, Atiku will be number two or vice versa. Atiku will be the first to cross the line of recording 25 per cent in 24 states. He will get 25 per cent automatically in the 19 states of northern regions and will pick six in the South-South automatically.
“He will pick up 25 per cent in all of the five states in the South-East, a traditional base of the PDP, and the same in the South-West. Wherever Obi is number one, Atiku will be number two or vice versa.
“I do not know if in any state, the PDP will not record 25 per cent and eventually win the overall popular votes. Nigeria has become so divided that the people are going to vote majorly along ethnic lines as well as primordial sentiments.
“The North will not vote for a “fake Muslim” in the name of a pretentious and mischievous Muslim/Muslim ticket. The scam is dead on arrival.”
He further said that the Northwest region would not abandon an Atiku for a Tinubu who according to him is well known for his iron grip on Lagos State since 1999.
Momodu concluded that Atiku was the most prepared and experienced candidate in the race.
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