The computer model that nailed the NFL's 2017 season has made its picks for Week 3

pulse

September 20, 2018 6:26 PM

Two models predict who will win the games during Week 3 of the NFL season.

The computer models are back making their picks for the 2018 NFL season.
In 2017, Microsoft's Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.
FiveThirtyEight's Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.

Week 3 of the NFL season is here, and Microsoft's Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup last season, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

Cortana is off to a strong start in 2018, going 10-5-1 in Week 2. Elo struggled, going 7-8-1.

Here are the picks for Week 3, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

Thursday

New York Jets at Cleveland (-3) —

Sunday

New Orleans at Atlanta (-3) —
San Francisco at Kansas City (-6.5) —
Oakland at Miami (-3) —
Buffalo at Minnesota (-16.5) —
Indianapolis at Philadelphia (-6.5) —
Green Bay (-3) at Washington —
Cincinnati at Carolina (-3) —
Tennessee at Jacksonville (no line) —
Denver at Baltimore (-5.5) —
New York Giants at Houston (-6) —
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7) —
Chicago (-5.5) at Arizona —
Dallas at Seattle (-1.5) —
New England (-6.5) at Detroit —

Monday

Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Tampa Bay —

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