On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff committee will release its first ranking of the top 25 teams in the country. But that ranking will be a tad misleading because only 12 schools still have a legit shot to be in college football's final four.
Only 12 schools still have a legit shot to make the College Football Playoff
More schools have been eliminated, and now thanks to our first weekend of chaos, we are down to 12 teams.
Three more playoff contenders were effectively eliminated from playoff contention this weekend, with Florida, Iowa, and Texas all suffering losses they won't be able to overcome. Meanwhile, there are three teams that appear to be locks for the playoff if they win their remaining games and several one-loss teams looking to make a claim for the final spot.
We have learned a few things over the years about how the committee picks the final four, and we have some idea of what teams need to do to make the playoff. Below, we ranked the 12 teams that still have a legit shot at making it.
On the outside, looking in, for now: Penn State and Utah
Penn State and Utah both have two losses and need a ton of help just to get back into the playoff conversation. The Nittany Lions might be the best 2-loss team in the country, but they have almost no shot to win the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Utah is suddenly in the driver's seat to win the Pac-12 South with a chance to be conference champs. But there are too many other conference champs and good one-loss teams.
12. Kentucky
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (11)
Last week's result: Beat Missouri, 15-14
Last week's playoff rank: unranked
Key games remaining: Georgia at home this week.
One thing to know: Kentucky still needs to beat Georgia and Alabama. That's probably not happening, but there is still a path to the playoff for the Wildcats to win the SEC. If they were able to pull off the impossible, they are probably in the playoff.
11. UCF
Record (AP rank): 7-0 (9)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 11
Key games remaining: Temple, Navy, and Cincinnati at home, followed by USF on the road in late November.
One thing to know:
10. Washington State
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (10)
Last week's result: Beat Stanford, 41-38
Last week's playoff rank: unranked
Key games remaining: Cal, Arizona, and Washington at home and Colorado on the road.
One thing to know: The Pac-12 looked dead with the elimination of Washington and Stanford, but then something strange happened: Wazzu kept winning. They still need some help — a Notre Dame loss would open the door for another conference champ — but it still feels like the Pac-12 is the first conference without a chair when the music stops.
9. West Virginia
Record (AP rank): 6-1 (12)
Last week's result: Beat Baylor, 58-14
Last week's playoff rank: 13
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: The Big 12's best hopes still reside in Norman, Oklahoma, but if West Virginia can win out, they will be able to make a case for getting into the playoff. The Mountaineers would have added several impressive wins and a conference title to their resume. But that is easier said, than done.
8. LSU
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (4)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 7
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: LSU is a 14-point underdog to Alabama this week. If the Tigers lose, they are out.
7. Georgia
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (6)
Last week's result: Beat Florida, 36-17
Last week's playoff rank: 6
Key games remaining:
One thing to know:
6. Oklahoma
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (7)
Last week's result: Beat Kansas State, 51-14
Last week's playoff rank: 9
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: OU has re-established itself as the class of the Big 12, but there is still no guarantee that the conference will get into the playoff. But the Sooners' chances of making the playoff are better than the chances of Georgia or LSU as both of those teams already have one loss and still have to face Alabama.
5. Michigan
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (5)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 5
Key games remaining: Penn State at home and Ohio State on the road to end the regular season.
One thing to know: The winner of the Big Ten still has the edge over the winner of the Big 12 and whoever the second team from the SEC might turn out to be. That means, the final playoff spot could be decided by the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game.
4. Ohio State
Record (AP rank): 7-1 (8)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 4
Key games remaining:
One thing to know:
3. Notre Dame
Record (AP rank): 8-0 (3)
Last week's result: Beat Navy, 44-22
Last week's playoff rank: 3
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: Notre Dame has a 66% chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN's playoff predictor.
2. Clemson
Record (AP rank): 8-0 (2)
Last week's result: Beat Florida State, 59-10
Last week's playoff rank: 2
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: Clemson is peaking at the right time. Over the Tigers' last three games, the average score at the end of the third quarter was 44-2.
1. Alabama
Record (AP rank): 8-0 (1)
Last week's result: Did not play
Last week's playoff rank: 1
Key games remaining:
One thing to know: For much of the season, Alabama felt like the one team that could still be considered a lock even if they lost a game. That doesn't feel as certain anymore with several other conference champions and one-loss teams potentially vying for one or two spots.
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