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Thunderstorms, heavy wind, and rain threaten to deter voters from going to the polls on Election Day
The midterm elections kicked off Tuesday morning across the country, but bad weather is threatening to keep less-committed voters away from the polls.
Polls opened across the country Tuesday morning as the nation votes in the midterm elections, but bad weather is threatening to impact several key races in the eastern United States.
Every state east of the Mississippi River is likely to see rain at some point while polls are open today, CNN reported, and there are several areas where more severe weather — including thunderstorms and gusting winds — could keep less-committed voters from the polls.
Democrats are hoping Tuesday's elections win them back control of Congress, but at least one study has shown that Republicans have an advantage on rainy election days.
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Thunderstorms up and down the East Coast, snow in the Rockies, and rain in the Midwest
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Weather.com predicts rain and thunderstorms to drench areas of New England down to the northern Gulf Coast.
"A windy, raw day is in store in the Great Lakes, which may keep some from venturing out to the polls," Weather.com meteorologist Jon Erdman said. "Some light snow in parts of the northern Rockies shouldn't be too much of an impediment for voters in those areas."
In Georgia and Florida, where two of the most contested governors' races are taking place today, scattered showers and storms are expected.
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A storm system that killed one in Tennessee last night is moving east and will bring severe thunderstorms and heavy winds from Charlotte, North Carolina to Philadelphia.
Accuweather suggests that voters in the Greensboro, North Carolina; Roanoke, Virginia; and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania areas vote in the afternoon, since the morning is expected to be wet.
Washington, DC and Philadelphia are likely to be stormy in the morning and the middle of the day, so voters there should aim to go to the polls in the afternoon and evening if they want to stay dry.
Meanwhile, Norfolk, Virginia; Raleigh, North Carolina; Dover, Delaware; Atlantic City, New Jersey and New York City are expected to have the best voting conditions in the morning, before rain hits in the evening.
Jim Geraghty, senior political correspondent for the conservative National Review, tweeted Tuesday morning that the rain was "coming down in buckets" in northern Virginia, where close House elections are taking place in the state's 7th and 10th districts.
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"Get ready for weather-scapegoating," he said.
Coming down in buckets in n... @ Jim Geraghty
Could rain be good for Republicans?
Rain certainly will have an impact on the election, but to what extent is unknown.
"Drizzle drives a few people away from the polls; a heavy downpour keeps a whole bunch of them away," Larry Powell, pollster and professor of political communications at the University of Alabama Birmingham, told Weather.com.
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Powell says campaign organizers pay close attention to weather in races, and will often organize transportation to take voters to the polls if they're hesitant to drive themselves.
He went on to say that inclement weather tends to favor the incumbent.
"Sunny days benefit the challengers more than the incumbents," he said. "The incumbent voters are going to get to the polls regardless."
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Some scientific research also suggests that Republicans have an edge in bad weather.
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A study first conducted in 2015 and revised last month from researchers at Dartmouth College and the Australian National University showed that at least 1% of voting-age adults who would have voted blue if the weather had been good, voted Republican instead on rainy election days.
"Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people's decisions on not only whether to vote but also who they vote for," Dartmouth government Professor Yusaku Horiuchi, a co-author of the study, said in a news release.
A separate study from 2007, conducted by Florida State University, also found a Republican advantage on rainy election days.
But the lead author of the study, political scientist Greg Gomez, said that the correlation is more pronounced in presidential elections.
Gomez told Weather.com that the midterms are different since they are disproportionately composed of "core voters" who are usually more partisan and less susceptible to changing their mind.
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"We would expect that bad weather is a bigger deterrent to voting in presidential elections than in midterm elections; midterm electorates simply are composed of a larger percentage of core voters who are determined to vote rain or shine," Gomez said.
He also says that more states now hold early voting, which wasn't the case when his study was conducted.
But this year's elections are looking more like a presidential election with possible record turnout for a midterm year, so it remains to be seen how the weather will affect the results.
Heres a breakdown of the forecasts in 40 key races:
HOUSE
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All temperatures in degrees Fahrenheit and according to .
California's 10th — Incumbent Rep. Jeff Denham (Republican) vs. Democrat Josh Harder
California's 25th — Incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (Republican) vs. Democrat Katie Hill
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California's 39th — Democrat Gil Cisneros vs. Republican Young Kim
California's 45th — Incumbent Rep. Mimi Walters (Republican) vs. Democrat Katie Porter
California's 48th — Incumbent Rep. Dana Rohrbacher (Republican) vs. Democrat Harley Rouda
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Florida's 15th — Republican Ross Spano vs. Democrat Kristen Carlson
Florida's 26th — Incumbent Rep. Carlos Curbelo vs. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
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Florida's 27th — Democrat Donna Shalala vs. Republican Maria Salazar
Illinois' 6th — Incumbent Rep. Peter Roskam vs. Democrat Sean Casten
Illinois' 12th — Incumbent Rep. Mike Bost (Republican) vs. Democrat Brendan Kelly
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Iowa's 3rd — Incumbent Rep. David Young (Republican) vs. Democrat Cindy Axne
Kansas' 2nd — Democrat Paul Davis vs. Republican Steve Watkins
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Kentucky's 6th — Incumbent Rep. Andy Barr (Republican) vs. Democrat Amy McGrath
Maine's 2nd —Incumbent Rep. Bruce Polinquin (Republican) vs. Democrat Jared Golden
Michigan's 8th District — Incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop (Republican) vs. Democrat Elissa Slotkin
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Minnesota's 1st — Democrat Dan Feehan vs. Republican Jim Hagerdorn
New Jersey's 3rd — Incumbent Rep. Tom MacArthur (Republican) vs. Democrat Andrew Kim
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New Jersey's 7th District — Incumbent Rep. Leonard Lance (Republican) vs. Democrat Tom Malinowski
New Mexico's 2nd — Republican Yvette Herrell vs. Democrat Xochitl Torres Small
New York's 19th — Incumbent Rep. John Faso (Republican) vs. Democrat Antonio Delgado
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New York's 22nd — Incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney (Republican) vs. Democrat Anthony Brindisi
North Carolina's 9th — Republican Mark Harris vs. Democrat Dan McCready
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Ohio's 12th — Republican Troy Balderson vs. Democrat Danny O'Connor
Pennsylvania's 1st — Incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Republican) vs. Democrat Scott Wallace
Texas' 7th — Incumbent Rep. John Culberson (Republican) vs. Democrat Lizzie Fletcher
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Texas' 32nd District — Incumbent Rep. Pete Sessions (Republican) vs. Democrat Colin Allred
Utah's 4th — Incumbent Rep. Mia Love (Republican) vs. Democrat Ben McAdams
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Virginia's 2nd — Incumbent Rep. Scott Taylor (Republican) vs. Democrat Elaine Luria
Virginia's 7th — Incumbent Rep. Dave Brat (Republican) vs. Democrat Abigail Spanberger
Washington's 8th — Democrat Kim Schrier vs. Republican Dino Rossi
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West Virginia's 3rd — Republican Carol Miller vs. Democrat Richard Ojeda
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Indiana — Incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly (Democrat) vs. Republican Mike Braun
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North Dakota — Incumbent Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (Democrat) vs. Republican Kevin Cramer
Missouri — Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (Democrat) vs. Republican Josh Hawley
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Texas — Incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (Republican) vs. Democrat Beto O'Rourke
Tennessee — Republican Marsha Blackburn vs. Democrat Phil Bredesen
Arizona — Democrat Krysten Sinema vs. Republican Martha McSally
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- ABC 15
Florida — Incumbent Sen Bill Nelson (Democrat) vs. Republican Rick Scott
Nevada — Incumbent Sen. Dean Heller (Republican) vs. Democrat Jacky Rosen
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GUBERNATORIAL RACES
Georgia — Republican Brian Kemp vs. Democrat Stacey Abrams
Florida — Democrat Andrew Gillum vs. Republican Ron DeSantis
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