The Democratic Party regained control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections, with 35 House seats so far flipping from Republican to Democrat. As of now, Democrats will control 230 House seats compared to 198 for Republicans, with 7 races yet to be called or conceded.
FiveThirtyEight's deluxe House forecast — which includes everything from polls, district fundamentals, fundraising, and candidate quality — gave the Democrats a six in seven chance of taking back the House, predicting they would gain an average of 36 seats.
Their House model cast 14 contests as tossup, meaning both candidates had less than a 60% chance of winning, 15 as lean Democratic, and seven as lean Republican.
The results available so far show that 17 of these swing districts flipped from Republican to Democrat, six stayed in Republican hands, one flipped from Democrat to Republican, and four are still too close to call.
Here's which parties and candidates are winning these highly competitive districts:
Kentucky's 6th district: Republican Andy Barr wins re-election with 50.9% of the vote compared to Democrat Amy McGrath 47.9%.
The candidates: Marine veteran Amy McGrath, the first woman to fly an F-18 fighter jet in the Marine Corps, launched a high-profile bid to unseat long-time Rep. Andy Barr.
Her race gained national attention after one of her campaign ads detailing the barriers she overcame as a woman in the Marines went viral, and she raised $6.9 million in individual donations compared to Barr's $2.5 million.
The district: The 6th occupies a large portion of central Kentucky, including the city and suburbs of Lexington. It's Cook Partisan Lean is R+9, and Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2016.
Predictions and polls: The race was rated as a pure toss-up by FiveThirtyEight on the day of the election. A Nov. 1-4 Siena College/NYT poll showed McGrath and Barr in a dead heat.
Virginia's 5th congressional district: Republican Denver Riggleman beats Democrat Leslie Cockburn 53% to 47%.
The candidates: Republican Denver Riggleman, a businessman and Air Force veteran, defeated Democratic candidate and former investigative journalist Leslie Cockburn in the open race for the fifth district.
The district: Virginia's 5th district occupies a large swatch of central Virginia, including the city of Charlottesville. Its Cook Political Rating is R+6.
Predictions and polls: FiveThirtyEight rated the race in the 5th district lean Republican, giving Riggleman a seven in ten chance of winning. An Oct. 22-26 Siena College/NYT poll showed Cockburn leading Riggleman by one point.
Florida's 15th district: Republican Ross Spano defeats Democratic opponent Kristen Carlson 53% to 47%.
The district: Florida's 15th district
Predictions and polls: rated the race as lean Republican
Virginia's 2nd district: Democrat Elaine Luria defeated Republican Scott Taylor 51% ro 49%
Florida's 26th district: Democrat Debbie Mucrasel-Powell defeated incumbent Republican Carlos Curbelo 51% to 49%.
Predictions and polls:
Texas' 32nd district: Democrat Collin Allred defeated Republican Rep. Pete Sessions 52% to 46%.
Predictions and polls: rated the race as a toss-up the day
Illinois' 6th district: Democrat Sean Casten defeated Republican Pete Roskam 53% to 47%.
The candidates: Republican Rep. Peter Roskam has represented the district for over 10 years, currently chairing the Subcommittee on Tax Policy on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee.
First-time Democratic candidate Sean Casten — a scientist and clean energy executive — gave Roskam his toughest re-election fight in years, capitalizing on anti-Trump energy in the suburbs to win victory.
The district: The 6th district is located in the densely populated Chicago suburbs, and includes the city of Naperville. It's mostly white and relatively wealthy. Although the 6th district has a Cook PVI of R+2 and has been represented by a Republican since 1973, Hillary Clinton carried district by seven points in 2016.
Predictions and polls: FiveThirtyEight designated the race as "lean Democratic," giving Casten a five in eight chance of winning. An October 20-26 NYT/Siena College poll shows Casten leading Roskam by two points.
New York's 19th district: Democrat Antonio Delgado defeated Republican John Faso 50% to 48%
The candidates: Freshman Rep. John Faso is a longtime Republican figure who was a 2006 gubernatorial nominee, casting himself as looking to serve interests along Conservative, Independence, and Reform party lines.
Democratic nominee Antonio Delgado is an Ivy League-educated lawyer who draws frequent comparison to former President Barack Obama for crafting a message that includes his family and humble beginnings.
Delgado's past as a rapper has been amajor talking pointof Faso's campaign, which has identified lyrics touching on race and capitalism as "offensive." But Delgado successfully beat back those attacks to flip the 19th.
The district: The area has grown slightly more Democratic in the past few years, but the Cook Report lists its partisan lean as R+2.
Predictions & polls: The 19th district was rated lean Democratic on Election Day, with FiveThirtyEight giving Delgado a two in three chance of winning. A Nov. 1-4 Siena/NYT poll showed Delgado leading Faso but just one points.
Texas' 7th district: Democrat Lizzie Pannill Fletcher beat Republican John Culberson 52% to 48%.
3The candidates: Republican Rep. John Culberson has served the 7th since 2000, and is seeking a 10th term. Culberson is a longtime member of the Appropriations Committee and has weathered a few recent scandals, involving insider tradingandspendingcampaign funds on Civil War memorabilia and fossils.
The district: The 7th includes wealthy suburban neighborhoods west of Houston, and is home to George W. Bush and Sen. Ted Cruz. Mitt Romney won here by 21 points in 2012, and Clinton carried the district by a single point in 2016 following major demographic shifts in the district that have made it a realistic target for Democrats.
Predictions & polls: FiveThirtyEight rated the race as a toss-up the day of the election.
Kansas' 2nd district: Republican Steve Watkins defeated Democrat Paul Davis 48.1% to 46.4%
The candidates: Steve Watkins
Paul Davis served five terms in the Kansas House of Representatives, including almost 10 years as minority leader. He narrowly lost in a run for the Governor of Kansas by 3.7 points in 2014, and lost his 2018 House bid by less than 2 points.
Predictions and polls: The race was rated lean Democratic on the day of the election, giving Davis a 5 in 8 chance of winning.
Virginia's 7th District: Democrat Abigail Spanberger defeated Republican Dave Brat 50.1% to 48.7%
Predictions and polls:
Iowa's 3rd district: Democrat Cindy Axne defeated Republican David Young 49% to 47.5%
The district: The 3rd district covers a chunk of Southwestern Iowa, including the capital city of Des Moines.
Predictions and polls: FiveThirtyEightrated the race as 'lean Democratic', giving Axne a seven in ten chance of winning. An October 25-27 poll from Siena College/The New York Timeshad Axne leading Young by two points.
Michigan's 8th district: Democrat Elissa Slotkin defeated Republican incumbent Mike Bishop 50.6% to 46.8%
DemocratElissa Slotkinserved three tours of duty in the Iraq War as a Middle East analyst for the CIA, and went on to serve on the national security staffs of Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama, as well as in policy roles at the Pentagon.
The district: 8th district
Predictions and polls: Michigan's 8th was rated lean Democratic the day of the election, with FiveThirtyEight giving Slotkin a seven in ten chance of winning. An Oct. 31-Nov. 4th Siena College/NYT poll gave Slotkin a 7-point lead over Bishop.
California's 48th district: Democrat Harley Rouda defeated Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher by 5.4%
The candidates: Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher has represented Orange County in Congress since 1989. Dubbed "Putin's favorite congressman" by his critics, Rohrabacher has recently been scrutinized by what some say aresuspicious connections to Russia.
Predictions and polls: FiveThirtyEight rated the race in the 48th as 'lean Democratic,' on Election Daygiving Rouda a slim advantage.An October 17-21 Monmouth University poll shows Rouda trailing Rohrabacher by just two points.
Minnesota's 1st district: Republican Jim Hagedorn defeated Democratic Dan Feehan 50.2% to 49.8%
The district: 1st district stretches across Southern Minnesota
Predictions and polls: rated the race as a toss-up on Election Day
California's 25th district: Democrat Katie Hill defeated Republican Steve Knight 51.3% to 48.7%
The candidates: Non-profit director Katie Hill took on–and defeated–incumbent Republican Steve Knight, who represented the district for 2 terms. While the AP has not yet called the race, Knight conceded on Wednesday.
Hill, who is 31 and openly bisexual, described her campaign as "the most millennial ever," repudiating corporate PAC money and out-raising Knight by more than a 7 to 1 ratio while drawing on her experience in a nonprofit seeking to end homelessness to advocate for issues like affordable housing.
The district: The 25th district, located in Southern California, includes parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties, including the cities of Simi Valley and Santa Clartia, and has an even Cook PVI.
Hill will be the first Democrat to represent the district, which voted for Hillary Clinton by a 7-point margin in 2016, since 1993.
Predictions and polls: The contest in the 25th was rated a tossup by FiveThirtyEight the day of the election. An Oct. 25-28 Siena College/NYT poll had Knight leading Hill by 4 points.
Illinois 14th congressional district: Democrat Lauren Underwood defeated Republican incumbent Randy Hultgren 51.9% to 48.1%
The candidates: Lauren Underwood, a 32-year old former nurse and senior advisor in the Department of Health and Human Services, pulled off a stunning upset to defeat 4-term incumbent Randy Lutgren.
Underwood will make history as the first African-American woman to represent Illinois in Congress.
The district: The 14th district is located outside of Chicago, and contains a mix of suburban and rural communities. It's Cook PVI is R+5, and Trump easily carried it by 4 points in 2016.
Predictions and polls: The odds of Democrats re-taking the 14th were considered slim throughout the 2018 cycle, but FiveThirtyEight cast the race as lean D on the day of the election following
New Mexico's 2nd district: Democrat Xochitil Torres-Small defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 50.7% to 49.3%
Predictions and polls: rated the race as a tossup
Washington's 8th district: Democrat Kim Schrier defeated Republican Dino Rossi 52.9% to 47.1%
The candidates: Former State Sen. Dino Rossi tried to carry Republican hopes to continue their hold on the 8th after the retirement of former Rep. Dave Reichert, but was defeated by a 5.8% margin.
The district: 8th lies just east of Seattle
Predictions and polls:
New Jersey's 3rd district: Democrat Andy Kim defeated Republican Tom MacArthur by 1.1%
The district: An R+2 district, the 3rd district went for Obama in 2008 and 2012, but Trump carried it by a six-point margin in the 2016 election.
Ratings and predictions: FiveThirtyEight rated the race as lean Democratic, giving Kim a 5 in 8 chance of winning. An Oct. 21-25 Siena College/NYT poll showed MacArthur leading Kim by just one point.
Maine's 2nd district: Democrat Jared Golden defeated Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin by 1.06%
The candidates: Democratic challenger Jared Golden, a former state representative and Marine Corps veteran, defeated
The district: The largest congressional district east of the Mississippi River, Maine's 2nd district encompasses 80% of the state. It's largely rural and working-class, with a tradition of strong organized labor.
The 2nd district's Cook Political Voting Index (PVI) is R+2, and Trump carried it in 2016 by a margin of seven percentage points, 51% to 44%.
Predictions and polls: The contest in the 2nd was rated lean D by FiveThirtyEight the day of the election. An Oct. 27-29 Emerson College poll showed Golden leading Poliquin by just 1 point.
Georgia's 6th district: Democrat Lucy McBath defeated Republican Karen Handel 50.5% to 49.5%
North Carolina's 9th district: Republican Mark Harris defeated Democrat Dan McCready 49.4% to 48.8%
The district:hoped to secure
Predictions and polls: rated the race as a tossup
California's 45th district: Democrat Katie Porter leads incumbent Mimi Walters by 1.6%
The 45th district voted for Hillary Clinton by 5 points in 2016, but is rated R+3 by Cook.
Predictions and polls: rates the race as "lean Democratic
California's 39th district: Republican Young Kim leads Democrat Gil Cisneros by just 122 votes
Utah's 4th district: Democrat Ben McAdams leads Republican incumbent Republican Mia Love by 0.4%
The candidates: Incumbent Rep. Mia Love — the first-ever African-American Republican congresswoman and former mayor of Saratoga Springs — found herself embroiled in a number of campaign finance scandals for allegedly raising money for a nonexistent primary.
Predictions and polls: rated the race as a toss-up
New York's 22nd district: Democrat Anthony Brindisi leads Republican Claudia Tenney by 0.6%
The candidates: First-term Republican Claudia Tenney has been a vocal Trump supporter in her remarks on the campaign trail and policy moves in Washington, also appearing with Trump and his daughter Ivanka at summer rallies and fundraisers.
Predictions and polls: FiveThirtyEight rated the race as lean Democratic the day of the election. A Nov. 1-4 Siena College/NYT poll placed Brindisi just one point behind Tenney.