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Live: Theresa May battles for survival ahead of Conservative party no confidence vote

Theresa May will face a vote on her leadership today which could see her deposed. Follow Business Insider's live blog for the latest developments.

Theresa May arrives in Berlin to discuss Brexit with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, 11 December

LONDON — Theresa May will face a leadership challenge this evening after 48 Tory MPs sent letters demanding a no-confidence vote.

Conservative MP Graham Brady, the committee's chairman, said a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm tonight in the House of Commons.

"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening," Brady said.

Follow Business Insider's liveblog for the latest developments in another hectic day at Westminster.

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11:26: Conservative MP Anna Soubry: Tories could never win an election again if they deliver hard Brexit

Speaking to Business Insider's Adam Payne earlier this morning, Conservative MP Anna Soubry said the party warned it could never win an election again if it delivered a hard Brexit.

"Unless we deal with this inherent problem of a rump in the party, get back to being in the centre of British politics which is always the place where you win elections, unless we get our party back and put this issue back to the British people with the option of continuing our membership of the EU, because that's obviously the best deal that we have, then we are doomed.

"If we do all of these things, we can salvage the party and continue to govern," she said.

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"If we don't, we are doomed."

11:25: Government minister on tonight's confidence vote: 'I suspect it will be tight.'

A Remain-supporting government minister tells Business Insider tonight's vote will be tight.

"I will vote for her but I suspect it will be tight. It may be the ones who bang the desks the loudest," they tell us.

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10:40: Prime Minister demanded 'prompt' vote — Brady

The 1922 Committee's Graham Brady has briefed journalists on tonight's vote.

Here's what we've learned:

The PM was told she would face a confidence vote at 2130 yesterday after 48 letters were submitted. There was "an element of traffic in both directions," with some MPs withdrawing their letters.

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— The Prime Minister wanted the confidence vote resolved "promptly," Brady said. He defended the decision to hold the vote today, amid anger among opponents of the prime minister that holding a vote so hastily is designed to help her.

"The rules say the vote should be as quickly as possible in the circumstances," Brady said.

— "There could have been a conversation about delaying until she returned from Brussels on Thursday but there wasn't that conversation," Brady said. "It may have been different had we been in recess... but given the business planned to be going ahead in the house this week ... most people were likely to be here."

Here's how the ballot will be worded: "I have confidence in Theresa May as the leader of the Conservative party / I do not have confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party."

10:28: Article 50 extension is 'inevitable'

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Labour MP and chair of the Brexit Select Committee Hillary Benn believes an Article 50 extension is "inevitable."

The UK is scheduled to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, at the end of the two-year exit process triggered when Theresa May invoked Article 50. But the government could seek to extend that deadline if its current state of chaos continues.

Benn's warning echoes that of Theresa May's, who warned on Wednesday that replacing her as leader would lead to an Article 50 extension request.

"One of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding Article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it," she said.

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"A change in leadership will put our country's future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it."

"The only people whose interests would be served would be [Labour leader] Jeremy Corbyn and [Shadow Chancellor] John McDonnell."

10:21: 'An opportunity to give the ERG a good kicking'

10:04: How will the confidence vote work?

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Here's how the confidence vote will play out:

1. A ballot is held: Between 1800 and 2000 UK time, MPs will vote in the House of Commons either to support or oppose Theresa May, marking a black cross on a piece of paper with two options — confidence or no confidence.

Key point: It required only 48 MPs, or 15% of Tory MPs, to trigger a vote itself. But it would require a simple majority of 158 — half the Conservative MPs plus one 50% of MPs — to depose the prime minister.

2. If May wins? She remains prime minister. But if she won by only a slender margin she could feel pressured to resign.

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3. If May loses? Theresa May is no longer leader of the Conservative party. She would be forced to resign as prime minister. A leadership contest would then be held. The likes of Dominic Raab, Sajid Javid, and Boris Johnson are seen as frontrunners to replace her if that happens.

09:45: Tory Remainer Anna Soubry calls letter-senders 'a rump of hard right, hard Brexiteers'

Speaking at an Institute for Government event this morning, Tory MP Anna Soubry — one of the Conservative Party's most committed Remainers — said those MPs who have sent letters to Graham Brady of were led by "a rump of hard right, hard Brexiteers."

"They should have been booted out by previous leaders," she told the IfG event.

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"They behave appallingly and only represent themselves and their warped ideology. They need to get a life but they don’t have lives because they’re obsessed with Europe."

09:00: Here's Graham Brady's letter announcing a vote of confidence in Theresa May.

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