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Brazil's presidential frontrunner is the latest to fall in a massive corruption investigation — and it's not clear what comes next

Lula would be the highest-profile Brazilian figure brought down in the Car Wash corruption investigation.

  • Former Brazilian President Lula da Silva looks likely to be jailed after an unsuccessful fight against a corruption conviction.
  • Lula would be the highest-profile Brazilian figure brought down in the Car Wash corruption investigation.
  • His exit would also significantly change the makeup of the upcoming presidential election, in which he is the front runner.

In the early morning hours on Thursday, Brazil's top court voted 6-5 vote a deny a request from former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to stay out of jail while he appeals a corruption conviction.

That ruling was followed by federal judge Sergio Moro, who has led the Car Wash corruption investigation that has shaken Brazil's business and political worlds, giving Lula until 4 p.m. ET on Friday to turn himself in and begin serving a 12-year sentence.

A petition to quash the warrant was denied late on Friday afternoon, but Lula's supporters counted down the final seconds, chanting "There is no surrender" after it passed. Lula himself was reportedly on his way on his way to address supporters from a sound truck outside the union headquarters, with riot police also on site.

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The party's vow to keep Lula on the ballot means he "is therefore likely to remain on campaign mode and he will continue to seek legal loopholes that would allow him to run," Favaro told Business Insider. "The questioning of the judiciary's decision serves the PT’s narrative of being victims of a politically motivated trial."

With Lula's strong rebuke of the judiciary and investigators, "he was kind of playing into some of his core supporters from the left and moving away from the center position that actually got him elected before," Fernando Mello, chief political analyst at the Brazilian news site Jota, said on a Friday conference call.

"By aiming his discourse to the left supporters," Mello added, "Lula might have eliminated more the center or the majority of the population, because we have not seen many people going to the streets, for example, to defend him."

That response has also likely been shaped by attitudes toward the legal proceedings against Lula, which have been viewed as fair, even if the prosecution itself is seen as misapplied.

According to a survey conducted Thursday by Ideia Big Data, "80% of the Brazilian population think that the trial was a fair trial," Mauricio Moura, the firm's founder and chief pollster, said on the Jota conference call, adding that 55% of Lula voters said the same.

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"Nine out of 10 Brazilians support ... the Car Wash operation, and 85% support the work of judge Sergio Moro," Moura said. "And from the Lula voters, 75% think that he is going to jail in the next day, so they already internalized the fact that he's going to jail."

Lula's likely exclusion from the race means more trouble for Brazil's already divided political left. While Lula, who left office after two terms as president with over 80% approval, has successfully boosted other candidates before — helping Dilma Rousseff follow him into office — he may not play kingmaker this time around.

"Local pollsters indicate that his party colleagues, Jacques Wagner and Fernando Haddad, have less than 5% of voting intentions in their best scenarios, with rejection rates north of 50%," Favaro said.

"Although the polls are probably underestimating the electoral strength of a PT candidate, it is nevertheless clear that no substitute would be able to reach Lula’s levels of support."

Taking Lula out of the mix may also undercut Congressman Jair Bolsonaro, an extreme-right candidate who has been polling in second behind Lula, buoyed by attacking the left.

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The current president, Michel Temer, who is considering running, has record-low approval, with 72% of Brazilians rating his government "bad" or "terrible." Just 5% said it was "good" or "great."

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