As Russia stokes tensions with Ukraine, it's trying to gain a military edge over NATO elsewhere in Europe

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have spiked after Russia fire upon and seized Ukrainian ships on Sunday in the Black Sea.
Russia's military presence in the Black Sea region has increased since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and Moscow has made similar moves elsewhere.
Russian capabilities present specific challenges to NATO — something the alliance is well aware of.

A confrontation between Russian and Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea this weekend ended with Ukraine's ships seized and its sailors jailed.

It was the first direct clash between Moscow and Kiev in years, and it stoked tensions that have been elevated for years, especially after Russia intervened in Ukraine in 2014 and seized the Crimean Peninsula and then backed separatist movements along Ukraine's eastern border.

Two Ukrainian forces navy ships are seen near Crimea. The Ukrainian navy says a Russian coast guard vessel rammed a Ukrainian navy tugboat near Crimea, damaging the ship's engines and hull. BusinessInsider

The November 25 clash took place in the Kerch Strait, which divides Crimea and mainland Russia and connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov. Photos show Russia appears to have struck one of the Ukrainian ships with a heavy weapon, such as a 30mm gun or missile.

Since claiming Crimea, Russia has taken a more aggressive stance toward the Sea of Azov, declaring invalid a 2003 agreement in which Moscow and Kiev agreed to share the body of water.

In 2015, Russia began construction of a bridge over the Kerch Strait. The sea is already the world's shallowest, no deeper than 50 feet, and the height of the bridge further restricted the size of ships that could pass through.

The road-and-rail bridge constructed to connect the Russian mainland with the Crimean Peninsula, in the Kerch Strait, Crimea, April 25, 2018. BusinessInsider

Russia has also interfered with Ukrainian shipping in the area and at times closed the strait completely — all of which is particularly challenging for Ukraine, which has major ports on the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine and Russia have both pursued a military buildup in the area, but Russia has more forces and their activity has been more substantial.

Moscow's moves in the Black Sea region are of a piece of with what it's been doing throughout Eastern Europe amid heightened tensions with NATO.

An arc of A2/AD

Since 2014, Russia has "built up tremendous amounts of capability" in Crimea, said Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at geopolitical-analysis firm Stratfor.

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been high since 2014, and NATO has taken a more active role in the region. BusinessInsider

Russian forces in the area now amount to about 30,000 troops and more than 100 combat aircraft, up from dozens that were in the area prior to the takeover, Lamrani said. (In May, 17 Russian planes swarmed a British warship sailing just 30 miles from Crimea.)

Weapons like the S-400 and coastal-defense systems can be employed as a part of anti-access/area-denial, or A2/AD, strategy, and their presence in Crimea and elsewhere along Russia's eastern frontiers has garnered attention from NATO.

Alive to these challenges

But concern has grown that Russian A2/AD in areas like eastern Syria or the Baltic and Black seas could create layered defensive bubbles and limit NATO's freedom of movement — especially in an engagement below the threshold of war.

In the decades since the Cold War, NATO members also shifted their attention away from a potential conflict with a peer or near-peer foe, focusing instead on smaller-scale operations like counterterrorism. (The US and others have started to reverse this shift.)

Advanced stealth platforms, like the US-made F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, are seen as potential counters to A2/AD systems. And other assets, like the Navy's EA-18G Growler electronic-attack aircraft, could help thwart them.

But it's not clear those resources are available in the numbers needed to do so, nor is it likely such an engagement could be conducted without heavy losses.

Nevertheless, while Russia may find an advantage within the specific area of A2/AD, Lamrani said, "

As Russia stokes tensions with Ukraine, it's trying to gain a military edge over NATO elsewhere in Europe

An arc of A2/AD

Alive to these challenges

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