Lyft has a 'clear early-mover advantage' in beating Uber to an IPO

pulse

December 6, 2018 7:36 PM

"No one knows the exact economics of it," an analyst at a pre-IPO merchant bank told Business Insider — but Lyft could be closer to turning a profit.

Lyft's founders, Logan Green and John Zimmer.

Lyft

Lyft on Thursday said it had confidentially filed a draft registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for an initial public offering that could come early next year.

While the ride-hailing company is still much smaller than Uber, its earlier entry to the stock market ahead of other competing firms will give it a key advantage, according to a Wall Street analyst.

"Lyft has the clear early-mover advantage, and they will definitely get the benefit of the doubt," Santosh Rao, the head of research at the merchant bank Manhattan Venture Partners, told Business Insider. "No one knows how to value these companies. Is it a software company? Is it a car company? Is it a service?"

Rao, who specializes in late-stage, pre-IPO company research, says the most accurate comparison is to platform companies, such as Etsy or Alibaba. Based on these multiples, Rao's firm estimates a fair value of Lyft to be $19 billion to $20 billion.

Still, Rao acknowledged that "no one knows the exact economics of it." He added: "There is a whole range of estimates out there. Some people estimate autonomous vehicles will totally revolutionize the benefit and make 70% of their costs go away, but that is still way out."

Both Uber and Lyft are deeply unprofitable, with quarterly losses for both companies in the hundreds of millions. (Uber self-reports some financials, while Lyft's were reported by Bloomberg.)

This isn't necessarily a deal breaker. There are plenty of money-losing public companies. Tesla, for instance, recently turned a rare profit in its most recent quarterly earnings report, despite many years on public exchanges.

Now that the race to go public could be ending, the battle between Uber and Lyft could turn in to a race for profitability.

"I think the economics are much better" for Lyft, Rao said. "The PR is better and profitability is much closer."

Uber did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Do you work at Lyft or Uber? Have a tip? Contact this reporter via Signal or WhatsApp at +1 (646) 376-6102 using a non-work phone, email at grapier@businessinsider.com, or Twitter DM at@g_rapier.You can also contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop.

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