Global trade is stalling as Trump's tariff fights drag on, WTO warns

Merchandise trade rose just 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, compared with 3.5% in the same quarter of last year.
The effects of trade tensions between the Trump administration and China have grown increasingly evident in the largest economies in recent months.
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Global shipments of goods between countries remained at a sluggish pace in recent months as tariffs raised costs and cast uncertainty on businesses, the World Trade Organization warned Monday.

The global trade referee said its leading indicator of global trade inched up slightly at the start of fall but held far below its baseline. Merchandise trade rose just 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, according to the latest trade volume indices, compared with 3.5% in the same quarter of last year.

"Goods trade has stalled in recent months," the WTO said. "Some components of the barometer have stabilized since the last reading in August, while others remain on a downward trajectory reflecting heightened trade tensions and rising tariffs in key sectors."

The effects of trade tensions between the Trump administration and China have grown increasingly evident in the largest economies in recent months. In the third quarter, US business investment and exports continued to decline.

In October, the International Monetary Fund warned that trade tensions could slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the financial crisis a decade ago. The fund predicted that global growth would register at 3% percent this year, the lowest level since 2009 and a 0.3-percentage-point downgrade from its last forecasts in April.

"The weakness in growth is driven by a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity and global trade, with higher tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty damaging investment and demand for capital goods," said Gita Gopinath, the IMF's chief economist.

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Global trade is stalling as Trump's tariff fights drag on, WTO warns

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