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Nigeria gets Q2 GDP report on September 5, as experts express mixed opinion on end of recession
One question on the mind of most Nigerians, investors and policy makers is whether Nigeria is truly out of the recession.
The Statistics Bureau noted that the report would be released on September 5.
“Please note that due to the public holidays on Friday 1st of September and Monday 4th of September, the Q2 2017 GDP report will be released on Tuesday, September 5, 2017, not Monday 4, 2017.”
More so, the Director General of the Bureau - Dr Yemi Kale, said on his personal twitter handle that the report would be made available to Nigerians by 10 am on the stated day.
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Economic and finance experts have expressed mixed opinions on whether the economy would finally be declared out of recession going by the report.
Mr Imisioluwa Aiyetan, a Research Analyst with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), stated that the Economic Think-Tank body is of the opinion that the country has achieved improvement in the economy, but not out of recession.
“It is very unlikely that Nigeria will be declared out of recession by the NBS Q2 2017 report. Because all major indicators that would ensure that has only improved marginally within the period. Thus, at NESG we projected that the GDP figure will be -0.2% for Q2 2017 and +0.6% for the whole year” Mr Imisi said.
He further added that improvements in economic indicators and sectors are only marginal. As a result, the country is still in a recession.
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“Don’t forget the fact that food inflation is still increasing. In addition, cost of doing business is still high in terms structural problems so the expansionary PMI we have been experiencing is because of the stability in the foreign exchange and global oil markets. And oil sector constitutes the largest contributor to the manufacturing sector.”
“Based on Q2 GDP, my stand is that Nigeria will still remain in the recessionary regime,” Mr Imisi said.
Expressing a contrasting view about the expected economic performance of Nigeria, Mr Omotola Abimbola of Afrinvest West Africa noted that Nigeria would experience a positive growth figure of +0.6% in Q2, 2017 and an end to the recession in the country.
“As regards your question, we forecast a positive growth figure of 0.6% in Q2:2017. This is driven by a sustained recovery in non-oil sector - particularly manufacturing and services - to offset anticipated the subdued performance of the oil sector."
"Maintenance activities carried out on oil field and repair works on Trans-forcados terminal were major drags to oil output in the period. However, as already indicated by PMI data released in April to June, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities rebounded in the Quarter and we expect this to reflect on GDP numbers,” said Mr Omotola.
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Reports from other research outfits hinted that the GDP report would declare Nigeria has exited recession. Although, the prevailing economic conditions show that there is a lot more to be done to improve the social welfare of the people.
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