- American men who have only a high school diploma have seen a reversal of fortunes over the last few decades.
- While real wages have increased over the last several decades for those who have a higher level of education, they have held flat or fallen for those with lower levels of education.
- There is no single catalyst for the decline in lower-skilled and middle-skilled labor, and this is a long-term problem that is weighing on the US economy.
Americans who haven't gone to college are way worse off today than 40 years ago
Several decades ago, regular American guys could get by with a decent job with a decent wage on just a high school diploma. But things are very different today.
Several decades ago, regular Americans could get by with a decent job and a decent wage with only a high school diploma.
But things are very different today.
In a note to clients, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Michelle Meyer and Anna Zhou shared a chart showing trends in real wages broken down by levels of educational attainment from the 1970s to today.
While real wages have increased over the last several decades for those who have a higher level of education, they have held flat or fallen for those with lower levels of education. As you can see in the chart below, those who have a college degree or higher have seen wages climb, while those who have less than a high school education, a high school diploma, or some college without a bachelor's degree have fared worse.
"Wage growth has been slow to recover [since the Great Recession] on aggregate with only 2.4% yoy nominal wage growth as of October. However, there are differences by education with relative weakness for less educated men," Meyer and Zhou said. "This shows the demand shift away from this population, leaving them on the fringe of the labor force."
So, not only are men losing jobs amid demand shifts, but they are not getting back into the labor force.