ADVERTISEMENT

A top Wall Street strategist just toured China as trade tensions grip the nation. Here were his biggest takeaways.

John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer Asset Management's chief investment strategist, recently visited areas in mainland China and Taiwan, including Beijing, Taipei, and Hong Kong.

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping meet business leaders at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo/File Photo
  • He and his team walked away doubling down on their view that the global economy would suffer from a prolonged trade war between the US and China with no immediate resolution in sight.
  • Stoltzfus ran down down other takeaways from his trip to paint a picture of how the economy is faring there now, and what he was hearing from institutional investors.
  • Visit Markets Insider's homepage for more stories .
ADVERTISEMENT

President Donald Trump's trade war with China has ushered volatility into the stock market, hurt farmers in rural areas of the country, and pushed big investors to bulk up on cash .

And that's just stateside.

John Stoltzfus, the chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management in New York, met with institutional investors in the past week across mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

ADVERTISEMENT

He and his team walked away doubling down on their view that the global economy would further suffer from a prolonged trade war between the US and China with no immediate deal in sight.

"In our view the cost of a protracted trade war is simply too high and too impractical considering the challenges and opportunities that lie on the global and economic landscape and which might be ignored and missed as a result of a protracted trade/tariff war," Stoltzfus wrote.

The trip arrived at a tense moment for US-China relations and mere weeks before Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to convene at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. Economic growth in China has also fallen under a microscope as key measures like retail sales in the country have slowed.

In a report distributed to clients, Stoltzfus ran down down other takeaways from his trip to paint a picture of how the economy is faring there now and what he heard from institutional investors.

ADVERTISEMENT

"We noted that ironically year one of the trade war had been less of a negative to both China's and the US economy than many had expected," he wrote, citing a robust 2.9% gross domestic product growth in 2018 (still short of Trump's 3% growth promise ) and 6.5% growth in China.

But he added: "We suggested that year two of the trade war might not be so kind to either country."

Stoltzfus included other more anecdotal observations, like heavy traffic on a Saturday afternoon "consisting mostly of very new looking vehicles that to our eyes looked heavily represented by foreign brands (though with most vehicles likely manufactured in China)."

Here's a recap of what Oppenheimer's strategists gleaned from meeting with investment professionals during their week-long trip.

ADVERTISEMENT

Hollis Johnson/Business Insider

Sittirak Jadlit/Shutterstock

ADVERTISEMENT

By HerryLawford on Flickr

ADVERTISEMENT

Reuters

Reuters

ADVERTISEMENT

Reuters

Nicolas Asfouri/AFP/Getty Images

ADVERTISEMENT

Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images

See Also:

ADVERTISEMENT

FOLLOW BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Unblock notifications in browser settings.
ADVERTISEMENT

Recommended articles

Africa's first black billionaire could join $2.9 billion Vivendi bid for MultiChoice

Africa's first black billionaire could join $2.9 billion Vivendi bid for MultiChoice

10 most dangerous African countries in 2024

10 most dangerous African countries in 2024

Russia’s nuclear influence expands further north of Africa

Russia’s nuclear influence expands further north of Africa

Navigating the future: How AI transforms selling on Amazon

Navigating the future: How AI transforms selling on Amazon

Wall decor tips: Transforming your space with style and creativity

Wall decor tips: Transforming your space with style and creativity

Putin's African diplomacy: Security talks with West, Central Africa take centre stage

Putin's African diplomacy: Security talks with West, Central Africa take centre stage

Infinix users get over 35% exclusive discount on Showmax premier league & general entertainment subscription

Infinix users get over 35% exclusive discount on Showmax premier league & general entertainment subscription

10 longest bridges in Africa

10 longest bridges in Africa

India issues free heart surgeries to 150 Ugandan children

India issues free heart surgeries to 150 Ugandan children

ADVERTISEMENT