Here's how we rate Buhari's administration after 2 years
The Buhari administration over-promised and has so far under-delivered. But here's what we think.
Muhammadu Buhari
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Alongside his political party--the APC--Buhari promised to:
1. Generate, transmit and distribute at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years.
2. Increase the nation’s grid capacity to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving 24/7 uninterrupted power supply within 10 years.
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3. Provide three million jobs annually.
4. Construct 3,000km of superhighway including service trunks.
5. Build up to 4,800km of modern railway lines – one third to be completed by 2019.
6. Create an additional middle class of at least four million new home owners by 2019 by enacting national mortgage single digit interest rates for purchase of owner occupier houses; as well as reviewing the collateral qualification to make funding for home ownership easier, with 15 to 30 year mortgage terms.
7. Create 720,000 jobs in the 36 states of the federation annually (20,000 jobs per state).
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8. Revive the nation’s moribund refineries.
9. Make the Nigerian economy one of the fastest-growing emerging economies in the world with a real GDP growth averaging 10% annually.
10. Stabilise the Naira.
Among numerous other promises.
The Buhari campaign wrapped its plethora of promises around three broad themes of fighting corruption, tackling insecurity and reviving the economy.
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These days, it’s not uncommon to find administration talking heads attempting to walk back some of these promises, while citing a plethora of excuses.
But how exactly has the administration fared around the broad themes of tackling insecurity, providing infrastructure, fighting corruption and reviving the economy?
delves in characteristically below:
The Buhari led federal government has sufficiently degraded the capacity of terrorist sect Boko Haram to launch attacks and seize whole communities.
More than 13 local governments were under Boko Haram control before the administration took over from the Goodluck Jonathan government.
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Buhari has definitely fought Boko Haram better than his predecessor; restricting the terrorists to the fringes of what was once their Sambisa forest stronghold and rescuing thousands of captives from the clutches of the terrorists--notably more than 100 Chibok schoolgirls who were abducted from their school dormitory in 2014.
A handful of Boko Haram fighters have also been killed and the terrorists have been reduced to a ragtag army, only capable of launching soft target attacks.
The Buhari administration also appears to have dealt sufficiently with the threat posed by peripatetic herdsmen.
Nigeria is still far from a safe place to do business; with robbers still running loose and militants in the restive Niger Delta region still holding an entire nation hostage.
But the country’s security architecture appears to have a firmer grip on affairs than what obtains in the past.
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Ratings: 6/10
That the Buhari administration still cites its February 2016 attainment of 5,000 MW of electricity as an achievement, tells you how bad things have become in Africa’s most populous country.
In any case, power supply has dipped further, oscillating between 2,000MW, 3,000MW and 4,200MW at the best of times and system collapses at the worst of times.
Power, works and housing minister, Babatunde Fashola, cuts a confused and frustrated figure these days as he grapples with reining in distribution and generation companies who are hell bent on putting profits before performance.
The Buhari administration has laid out a road-map for erecting and upgrading roads and railways, but there’s still very little to show, two years on.
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Most federal roads in Nigeria, especially in the nation’s commercial hub of Lagos, remain in dilapidated conditions.
The federal government still has no coherent plan to address the nation’s 17 million housing deficit.
Nigeria’s infrastructure collapsed years ago and the Buhari administration hasn’t made significant gains here.
Rating: 2/10
Buhari’s reputation as an anti-corruption fighter helped in tipping the scale his way in 2015.
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The administration has hauled former public officials before the courts over allegations bordering on grand larceny and mindless looting of the treasury.
However, securing convictions has been difficult, thanks in large part to a complicit judiciary.
Admittedly, under Buhari, stealing is seen as corruption and there is greater emphasis on transparency, accountability and running leaner governments across the States.
Thanks to the whistle-blower policy, large sums of allegedly looted monies have been recovered in underground bunkers, upscale apartments and airports; an indication that it is no longer business as usual in Nigeria.
Rating: 7/10
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The Buhari administration inherited an economy on a tailspin.
It took the President’s economic team a while to get going and in the last couple of months, they appear to have set their stalls out properly.
Latest figures from the national bureau of statistics look promising: the non-oil sector has done well in the last couple of months.
Non-oil GDP grew by 0.72% compared to -0.33% in Q4 2016 and -0.18% in Q1 2016.
It was the best performance in 4 quarters.
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Specifically, Agriculture GDP grew by 3.39% compared to 4.03% in Q4 2016 and 3.09% in Q1 2016.
Crop production appreciated by 3.50% compared to 4.36% in Q4 2016 and 3.02% in Q1 2016.
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation GDP grew by 11.67% in Q1 2017, up from 2.04% in Q4 2016 and 8.41% in Q1 2016.
Overall, latest indices point to Nigeria exiting recession by last quarter of 2017 or first quarter of 2018.
However, the administration mismanaged the foreign exchange crisis in the early days and allowed currency speculators enjoy a field day.
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As the Buhari administration dithered on fashioning out an economic blueprint, the Naira depreciated and inflation spiraled out of control.
The CBN has been propping up the Naira with millions of dollars in interventions, but it remains unclear how long the apex bank can sustain this policy.
Rating: 4/10
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