Biafra: What will happen when the killing starts

In a perfect world the only change would be a trickle of squiggly lines laid over a green patch on a map.

High-level talks would ensue and Osinbajo and Kanu would announce a slow, methodical transition period to allow both parties to prepare for divorce.

Could Biafra get some territory soaked in oil, Kanu would ask.Of course, the answer would be no.

But to smooth things over Osinbajo would make sure Biafra was part of ECOWAS so the movement of people, resources and capital could continue to flow freely.

This would allow everyone else to get on with keeping their bellies full of soup and swallow instead of ducking bullets buzzing overhead.

In this scenario Lagos would still be the commercial draw card for Igbos and Northerners would be able to maintain their stranglehold on politics and power.

The next step in a self-determined Biafra would be the celebration of Biafran independence where world leaders would filter in and congratulate both parties on finding a peaceful solution.

But Nigeria isn’t a perfect world and it’s more than likely that neither side will give an inch.

If Kanu’s talk isn’t cheap and he is as determined as he says he is, Nigeria is potentially a few deep breaths away from civil war.

Kanu’s meteoric rise from London-based-rich-kid-radio-shock-jock to recently incarcerated and now much loved freedom fighter has shown that he is more than capable of mustering support for his cause.

Thanks to a healthy dose of megalomania and the duplicitousness to perpetuate the perception among gullible supporters that he is the Messiah, Kanu may just be the man a bunch of rebels could fight and die for.

However, if there was to be a war fought over Biafra it wouldn’t be conventional and it’s likely the streets of Onitsha and Umuahia would resemble those of Aleppo and Mosul in Syria and Iraq.

Territory would be gained and lost by the millimeter as both warring sides fought to a blood soaked standstill.

Whole families would be wiped out and those who could escape would either languish in refugee camps or join their brothers and sisters trekking it across the Sahara to Europe.

Eventually the United Nations would ask for hostilities to stop while both sides would use brokered ceasefires to breath for a second and replenish stocks of food and arms.

Both sides would blame each other for violating the terms of the ceasefire and the talks taking place in some princely hotel in Europe would breakdown.

Biafrans would become ‘terrorists’ and Igbos in the diaspora would return as foreign fighters.

Crudely made bombs hidden in Lagos and Abuja would kill and blow off the limbs of the innocent and not so innocent alike.

The same world powers who would come to celebrate an independent Biafra, would pick sides based on their own interests and watch civilians die of starvation and disease from the shadows.

Whether it be one year, two, three, four, five, six, seven…Kanu’s dream for an Igbo homeland would be crushed, leaving global news outlets to pick apart where things fell apart.

And even though Kanu claims an affinity with Israel, what’s left of Biafra would become the Palestine of Africa.

Nigeria should let Biafra go because right now the house of Nigeria that is home to all of the tribes has a leaky roof and no one in Nigeria could begrudge anybody wanting to leave.

Perhaps a secret jealously held by other Nigerians tribes over the Biafran wish to escape could help to pull the country back from the precipice of war.

But when you’ve got Northern groups threatening Igbos to quit their land by 1 October 2017, what chance will there be when the killing starts.

Written by Declan Coolan

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