The computers are on fire picking NFL games — here are their picks for Week 12

pulse

November 22, 2017 10:02 PM

Two models predict who will win the games in Week 12 of the NFL.

After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have caught fire in recent weeks.
The two models we're tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
Cortana has nailed 78% of the games in the last 5 weeks.

The NFL season is now in Week 12, and the two computer models we are tracking have caught fire in recent weeks.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Cortana went 9-5 in Week 11 and is now 54-15 (78%) over the last five weeks. It is now 105-55 (66%) overall, five games better than Elo (100-60, 63%). Elo went 8-6 in Week 11.

Here are the picks for Week 12, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

Thursday

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Detroit Lions — LIONS (Elo 53%), VIKINGS (Cortana 60%)
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7)