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The computer model that nailed the NFL's regular season has made its picks for the Wild Card games

Two models predict who will win the games during Wild Card weekend

  • After a slow start to the season, Cortana stormed back and was on fire the final ten weeks.
  • Cortana correctly picked 68% of the games overall and 75% of the games over the final ten weeks.
  • Elo also had a strong showing during the regular season, correctly picking 64% of the games.

The NFL regular season is now over, and despite a slow start, Microsoft's Cortana stormed back and won the head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight. In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana won the regular season matchup, going 162-78 (68%) overall, and 111-38 (75%) over the last ten weeks (we did not track Week 17 because of the wonky nature of the final week). Elo was not far behind, going 154-86 (64%) overall.

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Here are the picks for Wild Card weekend, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.

  • Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) — FALCONS (Elo 51%), RAMS (Cortana 58%)

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