Congress is leaning toward 'punting' on its huge deadlines, but it doesn't mean they 'can get through the month drama-free'

Congress faces a slew of deadlines in September, most notably a need to pass bills funding the government and raising the debt ceiling.
While there is considerable uncertainty, many analysts expect Congress to "punt" on fights regarding the deadlines for now.
But that doesn't mean it will be "drama free," analysts say.

Congress is facing a brutal September, but according to many analysts, it looks like lawmakers may kick the can down the road a little longer.

As the legislature returns from a month-long August recess, it faces down the needs to pass a bill to fund the government, raise the debt ceiling, and reauthorize a slew of government programs.

But policy experts and political analysts say the most likely outcome for this crushing deadline push is a series of short-term bills that will in essence "punt" many of the bigger policy fights to later dates.

"With only 12 legislative days in September, we expect Congress will pass a temporary measure and push off political debates until the end of the year," Morgan Stanley's public policy research team wrote in the note Tuesday. "While the president and some members of Congress had angled for a shutdown over border wall funding, Republican congressional leadership has stated repeatedly that they did not want a shutdown and absolutely would raise the debt ceiling."

Brian Gardner, managing editor of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in Washington, said the political optics of engaging in partisan fighting following a disaster like Hurricane Harvey would also help Congress to pass the necessary legislation.

"In the wake of Hurricane Harvey, we think Congress will avoid being seen as petty and dysfunctional so, in addition to passing disaster relief for the area affected by the hurricane, we expect Congress will pass a short-term spending bill (a continuing resolution or CR) that lasts into December," Gardner wrote Tuesday. "That is when a real fight over government spending could occur and when we think chances of a government shutdown will become more realistic."

Republican congressional leaders do not appear to have the appetite for a showdown in September.

House Speaker Paul Ryan has already said it would be impossible for the Senate and House to get a full budget for fiscal year 2018 together before the shutdown deadline at the end of September. That means Congress would need to pass a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government for a few months to finish the full budget process.

Many of the thorniest budget issues could also be left out of the short-term CR. For instance, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said funding for Trump's proposed wall along the Mexican border would be addressed in December, when the CR would likely run out again.

Congress is leaning toward 'punting' on its huge deadlines, but it doesn't mean they 'can get through the month drama-free'

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