What next for Raila Odinga ?

The announcement by the opposition NASA Party on October 10, withdrawing from the conduct of a re-run of Kenya’s presidential elections has brought about even more uncertainty to a country on tenter hooks and stunned the international community.

It however raises the question of what is next for the leader of the opposition,veteran politician Raila Odinga.

What is his next move on the political chess board and how will it affect his political legacy?

Odinga’s announcement of a withdrawal was not as surprising as it was delayed . The signs had been there all along that the NASA strategy was one that did not lead to an election on October 26. The absence of a campaign machine, the switch in stance from compromise to outright hostility between themselves, IEBC and Jubilee among others foretold the coming decision.

The withdrawal is a huge gamble for NASA and its leader. Odinga is playing a high risk,high reward game that could potentially blow up in his face and send an already edgy country over the edge,or end in a compromise that still allows him and his party a say in the governance of the country.

The withdrawal has created a constitutional question that will require time to answer between the IEBC, Parliament and perhaps the Supreme Court.

As Mr Nzamba Kitonga, who chaired the Committee of Experts that crafted the 2010 Constitution explained in an interview with TheNation, “You cannot just declare one person as president if one withdraws where there were two candidates, unless it was in the start of the fresh nominations, which happened in May.”

In NASA’s statement explaining their withdrawal , it quoted a constitutional position and also showed its hand. A withdrawal in their strategy buys them an extra ninety days if the IEBC does go ahead to cancel the election.

The absence of clarity and the potential for a long standing leadership chasm is one that Kenya and Uhuru Kenyatta cannot afford. East Africa’s most powerful economy , already in the middle of a precarious period, will not stand it with investment at a near standstill.

In pushing this move Odinga was very aware of the international community. In his announcement of a withdrawal, he accused the international community of siding with the government and losing its place as a neutral arbiter and observer in the election process. In a sense, he felt he had lost his position of strength with them.

His withdrawal certainly does buy him a place back at the table with a nervous international community,aware of the considerable support he still possesses in several parts of the country, keen to avoid the the escalation of violence to 2007 levels.

In all,Raila Odinga has shown a ride or die mindset. At age 72, this would be his last chance at winning an election and governing the country his father helped win independence for.

He has gone all in at the poker table, hoping that he has the best poker face to make him a winner. The definition of a winner in this situation however will be open to interpretation.