China's growing submarine force is 'armed to the teeth' — and the rest of the Pacific is racing to keep up

Countries in East Asia, led by China, have been pursuing a military buildup for years.
Submarines, flexible platforms with strategic uses, have been a particular focus.
Uncertainty about the balance of power in the region has stoked countries' pursuit of military hardware.

In October 2006, a Chinese Song-class diesel-electric submarine capable of carrying torpedoes and antiship missiles surfaced within firing range of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk.

"Some navy officers interpreted it as a 'Gotcha!' move," journalist Michael Fabey wrote in his 2017 book, "Crashback." It was "a warning from China that US carrier groups could no longer expect to operate with impunity."

Almost exactly nine years later, China again demonstrated its growing naval prowess, when a Kilo-class diesel-electric attack sub shadowed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan near southern Japan.

One defense official told The Washington Free Beacon that the sub's appearance "set off alarm bells on the Reagan," though there was no sign of threatening behavior.

The US still "owns the undersea realm in the western Pacific right now and is determined" to maintain it, Fabey told Business Insider in a February interview. But "China has grown — in terms of maritime power, maritime projection — more quickly than any country in the region," he added. "The growth has been incredible."

Armed to the teeth

"You're seeing Chinese submarines farther and farther and farther away" from China, Fabey said. "Chinese subs now make routine patrols into the Indian Ocean ... This is a very big deal, just in terms of what you have to think is out there."

Driving the Chinese absolutely crazy

A sub shortfall was expected in the mid-2020s, as production of new Virginia-class attack subs was reduced after production of new Colombia-class ballistic-missile subs started in 2021. But the Navy has said US industry can continue to build two Virginia-class subs a year, even after starting to build one Columbia-class sub a year in 2021.

The 2018 budget included also money for increased production of Virginia-class subs — which are "the creme de la creme," Fabey said.

China's neighbors are also racing to add subs, looking not only for a military edge, but also to keep an eye on their turf.

Diesel-electrics are relatively cheap, and countries like Russia and China are willing to sell them, Fabey said. "So you have this big proliferation of diesel-electric subs, because with just the purchase of a few diesel-electric subs, a nation can develop a strategic force."

"All those countries, they're the home team, so they don't need to have nuclear subs necessarily to go anywhere [and] project power," he said. "They want to just project power in their little neighborhoods, and that's why diesel-electrics are so amazingly good."

The next two Kalvari-class subs, built by a French firm, have already arrived. The six and last Kalvari-class sub is due to join the fleet in 2020. In July 2017, New Dehli contacted foreign shipyards with a request for information about building its next six nonnuclear subs.

India's efforts have been plagued by delays, however. The Kalvari was supposed to be delivered in 2012 but was four years late. Mistakes have also set India back — the Arihant, for example, has been out of service since early 2017, when it flooded because a hatch was left open as it submerged.

India has expressed considerable concern about Chinese naval activity in the Indian Ocean, which includes submarine patrols, as well as its efforts to court countries in the region.

Beijing has sold subs to Bangladesh, which has bought two, Pakistan, which has bought eight, and Thailand, which may buy up to four.

Countries buying Chinese subs rely on China's naval officers and technicians for support and maintenance — which extends Beijing's influence.

"I believe that's a counter to the increasing encroachment by Chinese forces," Fabey said of India's naval activity

"What the two countries have established on land, they're now looking to establish in the ocean, India especially," he added. "It's not about to let China encroach just willy-nilly."

All these countries are likely to face challenges developing and maintaining a sub force, Fabey said, pointing to the case of Argentina's ARA San Juan, a diesel-electric sub lost with all hands in the South Atlantic last year. But subs are not the only military hardware in demand in East Asia, and the buildup comes alongside uncertainty about the balance of power in the region.

Apprehension about China's growth has been tempered by increasing economic reliance on Beijing. And the current and previous US administration have left countries in the region, including longtime allies, unsure about what role the US is willing to play there.

"Everyone out in Asia is on one hand scared of China, and the other hand, they need China for trade," Fabey said. "Also there's a real sense of, 'China's right here, America's on the other side of the world.'"

"And there's a sense of reevaluating China," he added, "because if you don't have the 500-pound gorilla from the West, t hen you've got to worry about the 500-pound dragon in the East a little bit more."

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