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The shrinking role of unions helps shed light on an economic trend that is puzzling Fed officials

ANALYSIS: Federal Reserve officials who have expressed beffudlement at the absence of wage growth in spite of a 17-year low jobless rate should take a closer look at the issue of union membership.

  • A decline in union membership and activism helps explain why US inflation and wages have remained subdued despite a prolonged economic recovery.
  • Low inflation gives the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates low for longer, particularly if it wants to see workers' wages rise.
  • US inflation has undershot the Fed's 2% target for 100 of the 104 months since the start of the financial crisis, according to Capital Economics.

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